THE UNRAVELING

REF:"Two Decades of Greed- the Unraveling" www.theburningplatform.com

The reader is not going to like this recap of how we got into this mess, but perhaps in looking back will help form our future:

"We are currently in the midst of a Fourth Turning. This twenty year Crisis began during the 2005 – 2008 timeframe with the collapse of the housing bubble and subsequent repercussions on the worldwide financial system. It is progressing as expected, with the financial crisis deepening and leading to tensions across the world. It will eventually morph into military conflict, as all prior Fourth Turnings have. The progression from High to Awakening through the Unraveling took from 1946 until 2006. The most treacherous period of the Saeculm [A saeculum is a length of time roughly equal to the potential lifetime of a person or the equivalent of the complete renewal of a human population.] is upon us.. . The last Unraveling period in U.S. history from 1984 through 2005 was symbolized by Boomer greed, materialism, debt and selfishness. . .[classified by Strauss and Howe as the third turning.]

The Unraveling began during the 2nd Reagan term with the “Morning in America” feel good landslide re-election campaign. The Dow Jones Average on January 1,1984 was 1,259. The National Debt was $1.6 trillion. The oldest Baby Boomer turned forty-one in 1984, with the youngest just twenty-four years old. This generation of 76 million over-indulged spoiled social activists is the proverbial pig in a python. Whatever path this generation chooses to take transforms the country for better or worse. The term Yuppie was coined in the early 1980’s as the egocentric Boomers poured onto Wall Street beginning their upwardly mobile perfectionist careers. The country was exhausted from the 1960s turmoil and the depressing 1970s. Failed presidencies, oil shortages, raging inflation, and American hostages had left an America that was looking for a renaissance.. . .

Ronald Reagan’s first term required extreme measures by Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to break the back of inflation. By raising interest rates to 18%, Volcker set the stage for a 20 year bull market in stocks and bonds. Reagan survived an assassination attempt, the U.S. military conducted a successful operation in Grenada, Reagan fired 11,000 air traffic controllers, and an unprecedented peace time military buildup was initiated. This created an atmosphere for economic revival, led by the Boomers. A new laissez faire era heralded by Ronald Reagan was based on his belief that government was the problem, not the solution. His goal was to cut the size of government while slashing taxes and unleashing the animal spirits of the free market.

The 1980’s proved to be a confidence building decade after two decades of tumult. With the most egocentric self centered generation in the history of the world entering the prime of their careers, a double shot of renewed confidence and debt accumulation began a cycle of greed and hubris like none ever seen on earth.

The Boomer heroes of unbridled greed were Michael Milken, Ivan Boesky, Carl Icahn and Boone Pickens. Leveraged buyouts, where corporate raiders used huge amounts of debt to takeover companies, taking them private, firing thousands of workers, spinning it off as an IPO, and reaping enormous profits, were hailed as the savior of free markets by Wall Street. These deals generated gigantic fees for the firms advising on the LBOs. This Boomer led societal mood of wealth accumulation at the cost of gutting corporations and screwing the working class became ingrained in the fabric of America.. . .

The 1980’s proceeded as expected with strengthening individualism and weakening institutions. The GI Generation Heroes began to depart from the scene. This steady, cautious, risk adverse generation that built American industry and finance were being pushed into retirement by the Baby Boomer Generation. The old civic order was cast aside and the cultural revolutionaries stormed the gates. Baby Boomers seized control of Wall Street, having never experienced a bear market, never faced adversity, and never having to care about anyone but themselves. A brooding sense of pessimism began to creep into the mood of the country. Fiduciary responsibility towards your clients and proper risk management was considered old school. Maximizing profits, generating fees, and getting rich was the mantra of the new Wall Street generation. As the Boomers grew rich and cynical on the street of dreams, moralistic charlatan frauds like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton exacted their share of profits for themselves and their constituents. The working middle class sunk deeper into despair as their wages continued a two decade long stagnation. Real hourly earnings were the same in 2005 as they were in 1984, and 10% below the level of 1972. . . .

The trickle down crowd, mostly Republicans, contended that a rising tide lifts all boats. In theory that sounds great. In practice, it has proven to be a lie. During the 1980s and 1990s, all boundaries regarding compensation were obliterated by the “Me Generation”. Executive pay packages began to skyrocket as they were viewed as rock stars and masters of the universe. The ratio of CEO’s pay to the average worker’s pay leaped from 30 to 1 in 1980 to 250 to 1 by 2005. If CEOs had performed phenomenally over this time period, a case could be made for this leap. But, corporate America and certainly Wall Street had brought the US economy to the brink of disaster by 2005. This outrageous pay disparity contributed to the deepening anger in the country simmering below the surface.. . . .

The appearance of progress on some issues overshadowed the underlying deterioration of societal institutions and practices. Social Security was “saved” by Alan Greenspan and his commission. Essentially he manipulated the CPI calculation downward, screwing future generations of seniors out of their rightful payouts. Politically difficult decisions regarding Medicare and Medicaid were deferred to sometime in the distant future. With oil prices averaging $20 per barrel through the 1980s and 1990s, a coherent long-term energy strategy seemed unnecessary to the next election cycle politicians who control this country. The deregulation of the Savings & Loan Industry gave them many of the capabilities of banks, without the same regulations as banks. Imprudent real estate lending, fraud and insider transactions by S&L executives, protected by high powered Washington politicians, led to the first financial crisis. The failure of 747 thrifts and losses of $160 billion to the taxpayer can be attributed to lax oversight and fraud. . .

The delusion of the American populace cannot be underestimated. Their worshipping at the altar of materialism and adoration of Hollywood created pop culture was crucial to the societal delusion. Without the corporate consumerism marketing machine, an unlimited amount of credit provided by bankers, and ultra-low interest rates supplied by the Federal Reserve, the delusions of grandeur could not have been realized. Credit cards didn’t even exist until 1968. Until the 1990s mortgage lenders followed the 28/36 rule. Your mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, couldn’t exceed 28% of your monthly gross income. All of your debt payments couldn’t exceed 36% of your monthly gross income. Homebuyers rarely put down less than 10% of the home’s value. Home equity loans were virtually non-existent. The subprime loan market for homes and automobiles was miniscule. In the early 1980s auto loans averaged 45 months and buyers put 12% down on the purchase. By the mid 2000s auto loans averaged 64 months with only 5% down on the purchase. By 1999, 40% of all cars on the highway were leased. The proliferation of easy credit allowed average people to live a life of excessive opulence, occupying 7,000 sq ft McMansions, driving BMWs, and wearing Rolex watches. Americans bought so much stuff on credit they couldn’t fit it all in their oversized abodes. So they needed to rent outside storage for their stuff. In 1984 there were 6,601 facilities with 290 million square feet of rentable self storage in the U.S. In 2009, there were 46,000 self storage facilities with 2.21 billion square feet, a 762% increase. . .

The “creativity” of Wall Street was complimented by corporate America instituting “free trade” and “globalization” policies (NAFTA) supported by politicians in Washington DC. The terms free trade and globalization were code for corporate CEOs shipping US manufacturing jobs to China, India, and Vietnam, while expanding their corporate earnings per share 3 cents above analyst expectations per quarter. As reward for gutting American industry, the CEOs demanded their Board of Director toadies give them stock options for 1 million shares and $10 million raises. Does it require a Harvard degree and ingenious brilliance to fire 100,000 American workers making $20 per hour and build a plant in China paying peasants $1 per hour and depending on cheap oil to inexpensively ship the goods back to America? Only one problem, people without jobs have trouble buying stuff. Without middle class jobs, corporate CEOs turned to their Harvard buddies on Wall Street to create $1.2 quadrillion of financial derivatives to convince the middle class they really had wealth to spend on cheap Chinese goods. This corporate/banking collusion was fully supported by their paid for representatives in Washington DC. This unholy alliance between big business and big government enriched the ruling elite, while impoverishing the middle class. . .

The nation had an opportunity to come to our senses with the election of George Bush in 2000. The gravity of the coming Saecular Winter could have been moderated through prudent actions taken on the fiscal, political, and defense fronts. The autumnal Unraveling is a time of foreboding and a brooding pessimism. As a howling wind begins to blow, leaves turn brown and wither, determined squirrels scurry around collecting acorns in preparation for the bitter snowy Winter ahead. The opportunity to judiciously prepare was wasted after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on America. The colossal overreaction to an attack by a terrorist organization consisting of a few thousand members, ensured that the coming Winter will be harsh, deadly, and more bitter than any ever experienced in U.S. history. Prudence, caution, intelligence, and sound judgment were required. Recklessness, haste, stupidity, and hubris were employed. The result was that the Crisis that arrived in 2005-2008 will be more painful and possibly fatal for the United States. The multiple wars of choice, immense housing bubble, stunning government deficits and unaddressed unfunded liabilities have created a nation weakened and unprepared for the harsh reality ahead. The Empire of Debt has reached epic proportions."

We are undoubtedly reaping what we have sewn. Our financial and unemployment problems are but mirrors of the moral and manners of our population. The 76 million Boomers have multiplied themselves with the generations X and Y. A group more self involved has never been before.

Are they capable of rebuilding this country; probably not, because they are a know-nothing, underline the correct answer group who should have been left behind if only to grow up and take responsibility for their own actions, not just take from others. Stop whining you louts, grow up and show up.

With Love and Kindness,

THE HATMAN