THE GREATER DEPRESSION PT. 1

Ref: "Street Fighting Man" 321gold.com ,Doug Casey 07/29/09

There is no use in asking a person who has lost their job and cannot find another, whether this is a 'recession' or a 'depression'-they don't care about the semantics, just how they

are going to survive without a job. How will they make house payments, car payments, other payments and buy food?

This is not the same as the depression of the 30's. There were no credit cards, consumer debt, student loans etc. Few people had any debt to speak of and no one was concerned with the value of the dollar because you could go (before the Roosevelt decreed 'bank holiday') to the bank and exchange it directly for gold. A run on the banks is not likely today, but a mass funds withdrawal is still possible and a crashing dollar is likely.

In 1932 we were still basically a rural based society. Specialization had not yet taken hold and the population was largely self-sufficient. Most of us were thought to be virtuous, honest and prudent .To save for one's old age and care for our family were norms before the government sponsored Social Security. There were few "safety nets" such as unemployment insurance, medicare , medicaid and welfare payments. Counties at that time provided some assistance called the "dole" to indigent people.

First, President Hoover then President Roosevelt came up with the alphabet soup of federal agencies such as the WPA CCC etc., but the depression continued for another 9 or 10

years.

As this economic upheaval deepens and "change" and "stimulus packages" are not able to reflate the business climate;

what are we to expect, what should we plan for and how can we prepare for things we in this country have never experienced or believed would be possible in America? This author believes the let's pretend of the green shoots seers is purposely deceptive and dissuades reasonable people from preparing for what probably lies ahead for themselves and their families.

Mr. Casey in his referenced article looks ahead to several categories of possible

occurrences from civil unrest to sociopaths and gives us some suggestions for dealing or coping with these conditions.

Civil Unrest

Who will take to the streets and when? Not you. Not me, at least the writer believes not him, but who knows how he will react if he and his family had no food, no water no funds?

According to Casey " In prosperous times, people don't usually feel like overthrowing the government or transforming the basis of society.

Not so at economic troughs. People believe they have little to lose, they're eager to hang those they believe responsible for their problems, and they'll listen to radical or violent proposals. We're now just entering what will likely be the worst economic trough since the Industrial Revolution.

But why do humans tend to riot when the going gets rough? How can they think that solves anything? Do they believe it's going to make their jobs or money reappear? . . .

I suspect, the average American. People, throughout history, have always been prone to violence when times get tough. Is there any reason that should change now?

Recently, there have been -- really for the first time in this downturn -- reports of large, angry demonstrations all over the world. The UK, France, Eastern Europe, now China. If a place like Iceland, as placid and homogeneous as any in the world, can blow up, then any place can. And probably will.

A rioter is typically an angry person looking for vengeance because he blames someone else for his problem. So far, rioters seem to be directing their attention at governments. Correct target, of course, but they don't have the rationale quite right. They're not angry because governments inflated the currency, promoted fractional reserve banking, and nurtured all the cockamamie socialist programs that caused this crisis. Not at all; they rather liked all that. They're angry only because their governments haven't adequately protected them from the consequences of what they did. So as conditions worsen, we can expect governments worldwide to pull out absolutely all the stops to show they're "doing something." And round up scapegoats to satisfy the mob and divert anger from themselves"

Those in densely populated cities are more likely to be subject to riots ,pillages and burnings than those in suburbia, yet no one is immune; but how to prepare?